Professional Predictions
As part of our service to our clients we want to offer you our snap shot of likely real estate trends. These are based on available evidence and our interpretation of what is happening in the marketplace. Where ever possible we will put timeframes in place. Along with you we will monitor our success rate in these future snapshots.
House prices in the city will have a short sharp jump of between 4-6% between July and October.
Reasons
There has been a wall of buyers holding off buying, praying for the market to reach the 30% drop predicted by some. Within the next 8 weeks buyers will have realized we are now at the bottom of the cycle and we are heading back up again. Sales are already increasing with 91 sales in Whangarei in March and this trend will pick up strongly over the next months.
Despite contrary news items there is currently a shortage of listings available to buy. Owners have withdrawn their properties from sale, in many cases renting them instead. Others have deferred selling until the market is better. The result …there are not that many properties available for sale
The wall of buyers will hit the market about June when they become convinced through media reports that the market is heading up. This will coincide with a shortage of available listings.
The result will be strong upward pressure on prices with much of the previous 18 months price drops recovered over very short period of time
The market will flatten around November with only small price gains in line with inflation for a period of 12 months or more.
Reason
By October the public will have caught up with the trends and we will have the reverse situation of a wall of vendors putting their property on the market in the spring to meet the demand. These two forces will cancel each other out for a period of time until the weight of buyer’s increases through rising immigration.
Rental returns on residential property will begin to rise in October and rise by up to 20% over the next 12 months.
Reason
The properties that are short term rented, because they couldn’t be sold, will be put back on the market and sold, creating a shortage of rental properties.
BARRY JOBLIN areinz
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